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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd