Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
