🔗 Share this article

Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

But this year's competition is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. During an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still